(September 26, 2916) What if Trump wins? Since foreign policy really isn’t in the hands of the elected government but in the hands of the national security state (NSS), we probably don’t have to worry too much about Trump leading us into war: a major faction of the NSS wants to invade Syria anyway and will most likely do so regardless of who is elected. This will escalate conflict with Russia, but the U. S. military is stronger enough than both Russia’s and China’s that a major war is unlikely for the next five years or so. As China builds up its defenses, something like world war becomes more likely.
The real Trump danger is domestic. He can certainly accelerate deportations, already accelerated by Obama. The greatest danger is that the white supremacist movement inside and outside the police forces will be emboldened even more than it has been over the past several years because of practically zero prosecutions and even fewer convictions for their killings of unarmed blacks. (Hitler didn’t have to fire any judges). Vigilante groups will use the border for target practice and the police will clamp down hard at any Black Lives Matter protests of their activities – a protester was killed this week in Charlotte. It will be essential for white folk to defend Black Lives Matter and join in their protests. Some of us may even need to die to arouse other white folk in denial. There is likely to be an increase of armed battles between BLM and allies and the KKK and allies, which the police and Trump will mostly ignore. The national guard may be increasingly used in the inner cities, so it wouldn’t be a bad time for those of us young enough to join the national guard and organize within its ranks, preparing ourselves to refuse orders to shoot if need be.
Revolution is serious business. The capitalist system is in the throes of prolonged collapse, dating from 1929. The only way the system was saved was by total warfare resulting in sufficient destruction of property and human lives to give the system “new life” as it rebuilt. The accelerating collapse of the system is the context within which everything else is happening. The elites are somewhat aware of this and are therefore grabbing as much as they can of the world’s resources while they still can. They know the world-wide revolt is coming. The way for them to stem this tide is warfare promulgating chaos, which is clearly the elite’s strategy in the Middle East. It’s about to come home. Not to be alarmist, but we may be on the verge of a civil war similar to those in most Middle Eastern countries. Why should we be immune?
It seems likely to me that Trump will win because he is channeling the desperation of the white working class as it experiences the collapse. Bernie channeled some of that same desperation in a positive direction, but Hillary doesn’t even see it.
The prospect of a race war in the U. S. should not be discounted, mainly because it’s already happening, it’s been happening for 350 years and in the process of escalation. I’m hoping against hope that we won’t have to, but are you ready to arm yourself and take to the streets? To shoot it out with the amateur militias supported by the police? I’d put the chances of this needing to happen way above Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the election.
By the way, for you uber revolutionists, the above scenario is not a good thing. It will not bring us closer to revolution, that’s the whole point. To attack us before we are strong enough. The Sander’s campaign inspired us because it showed that there really is a majority of the country who would like to shift to a society that puts human well-being over profit. This lesson was not lost the elites. The democratic socialist society is coming because that is the only system that can perpetuate capitalism, even if it is highly regulated. This was crystal clear to the elites after World War II which is why such progressive regimes spread all over Europe. But as in Europe, we need to defeat Fascism first.